Chuangyuan Futures: Shanghai copper short-term adjustment, upward possibility

Add time:2017-06-13 Author:admin Page view:4635

    

Shanghai copper prices rose slightly. The main contract in June closed at 43530 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan or 0.58%. At 15:00 on the same day, London copper quoted 6042 US dollars / ton in March, and the internal and external ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.20, lower than 7.21 on the previous trading day

Copper rose less than London. The total number of contracts was 426998, and the position increased by 282 to 819646. The main contract turnover was 235236, and the position decreased by 3328 to 375940. Shanghai Nonferrous metal net 1 copper latest quotation 42430-42550 yuan / T, discount

(paste) 140 - (paste) 60.


    
     

2. Disk analysis

Long term: break the long-term support, shock down

Medium term: bottom rebound

Short term: narrow range shock

3. Market information

In terms of spot, the spot price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 60 yuan / ton - 100 yuan / ton, 43550 yuan / ton - 43610 yuan / ton, 43570 yuan / ton - 43650 yuan / ton. The high copper price in Shanghai futures market was blocked. The stockholders covered the stock in the early market and waited for the plate to pull up. After the low price goods were released, Pingshui Copper took the lead in increasing the premium for shipment, while good copper passively pushed up the shipment, and there was no price difference between brands. However, with the quotation of good copper rising to around 100 yuan, the market trading was obviously restrained and the deadlock mode was opened again. However, before delivery, the holders began to pay attention to the price difference every other month Short term trading, still do not need to increase speculation in the downstream market. In terms of industry, according to foreign news on March 2, Chile's mining minister Aurora Williams said on Monday that the Chilean government still maintained its estimated copper production in 2015 at 6 million tons, which will increase by 5% compared with the level in 2014. He said the decline in international oil prices would help high cost producers maintain output growth. He also said the Chilean government would take measures to help small miners cope with high production costs. Lusaka, February 23 news, Zambian President Edgar Lungu said on Facebook that once the country's lumwana copper mine is idle by Barrick gold, the Zambian government may need to consider looking for a new strategic partner for another owner of the mine, state-owned zccm-ih. Japan's copper cable shipments (including sales and exports) fell 2.9% to 60000 tons in December from a year earlier, the Japan wire and cable manufacturers association reported on Tuesday. On the macro level, the people's Bank of China has decided to cut the benchmark interest rate of RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions from March 1, 2015. The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans of financial institutions will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 5.35%; the benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 2.5%; at the same time, the upper limit of floating range of deposit interest rate of financial institutions will be adjusted from 1.2 times of the benchmark deposit interest rate to 1.3 times; The benchmark interest rates for deposits and loans of other grades and personal housing provident fund deposits and loans were adjusted accordingly. On Monday, data released by the American Association for supply management (ISM) showed that the manufacturing PMI of ISM in the United States in February was 52.9, lower than the expected 53, falling for the fourth consecutive month to a new 13 month low. The expansion rate of US manufacturing industry slowed down again in February compared with January.

4. Operation suggestions

Yesterday, one belt, one road, copper and copper, was still in a narrow range. Basic supply continued to be loose, and the US dollar stabilized. But in the short term, the drought in Chile was increasing, and the reserve policy was being implemented. The central bank lowered the down payment ratio of two suites and so on.

Support, in general, we believe that the short-term trend of Shanghai copper continued to rise, the operation of the main contract 1506 single holding, stop loss 42900



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