On April 10, the copper price continued to fluctuate upward during the day, while the copper price rose sharply and fell back at night with wide fluctuation. Luntong copper closed at 6020 US dollars / ton in March, up 24.5 US dollars / ton or 0.41% compared with April 10; Shanghai copper 1506 contract closed at 43530 yuan / ton on the afternoon of the 10th, up 220 yuan / ton, or 0.51% compared with the previous day; the night trading of the same day closed at 43470 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton, up 170 yuan / ton compared with the previous day.

On the macro level, on Friday night, the US Federal Reserve's March non farm employment data was significantly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate was also poor. The manufacturing population fell for the first time since July 2013, and the labor participation rate hit the lowest level since 1978. As a result, the dollar index suddenly fell and remained in a downward trend on Monday. Due to the unexpected deterioration of US employment data in March, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate increase has been delayed, and some institutions believe that it may be postponed to the third to fourth quarter.

Medium term logic: it is still the core judgment to maintain the overall weakness, and the weakness of its core factor fundamentals is still further strengthened, especially the inventory data is still increasing. In the second half of 2014, the main reason for the more complex market structure is low inventory + high rising water, which is the main reason for restricting the downward trend of copper price. At present, the continuous increase of inventory has great pressure on copper price. However, from the long-term supply and demand situation, the expectation and main factors of supply and demand balance towards surplus have not changed significantly. In addition, the later US dollar index may again form pressure on copper prices.

Coping strategies: Recently, affected by extreme weather, the operation of Los bronces copper mine and Salvador copper mine in Chile has been affected to varying degrees, and cochilco has also lowered the copper production forecast of Chile this year. At present, the TC of clean copper concentrate is reduced to 90-95 USD / dry ton, and the TC quotation of some miscellaneous ores is also reduced to 120 USD / dry ton, indicating that the current concentrate supply is still insufficient compared with the previous period, and the supply of clean ore is in short supply. Due to the strong performance of copper price in recent years, there are signs of holding the price and reluctant to sell, and the supply has decreased, while downstream enterprises still purchase on demand. It is expected that the copper price will continue to maintain the pattern of range fluctuation this week, focusing on the supporting role of 43000 yuan / ton.

In terms of premium, copper spot premium continued to expand, with a daily premium of 80 yuan / ton on April 10; LME spot premium fell to about 17 US dollars / ton on April 10; and us free market spot premium remained at US $137.5/t.

In terms of inventory, LME inventory on April 9 was 330050 tons, 75 tons less than the previous trading day; Comex inventory on April 10 was 25357 tons, 259 tons less than the previous trading day; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory data on April 10 showed 240775 tons, 5881 tons less than the previous week.

On the position, LME3 copper position on April 10 was 379330, 3725 less than the previous trading day. Shanghai copper's main contract position on April 10 was 375940, 3328 less than the previous trading day. According to the CFTC copper position report, the non-commercial long and non-commercial short positions of copper in the week of April 7 were 58765 and 63761 respectively, which resulted in 4996 non-commercial short positions, an increase of 671 net short positions compared with the previous week.